Revenue Forecasting Approach Towards Public Sector Wage Bill Management Dilemma in Kenya

Abstract

The Kenyan government has been working towards achieving fiscal sustainability in wage bill expenditure since independence. Fiscal sustainability is key to achieving economic growth and progress as most resources would be channeled to development expenditure. The international recognized level of wage bill to revenue ratio is between 30%-40%. However, this key ratio is not being achieved in Kenya as the Salaries and Remuneration Commission and Parliamentary Budget Office of Kenya reports indicates that in the fiscal year 2012/13, it was 47%. The reports further indicate that the ratio has been within the range 47%-49% since the fiscal year 2009/2010 to 2012/13. Notable is that revenue forecasts essentially exist to help in budget formulation. Why then would the public wage bill management be a huge task to the government since independence? This study sought to establish whether revenue forecast has an effect on wage bill management in Kenya. Causal research design was used to establish the cause and effect relationship between the independent and dependent variable. Purposive sampling was employed in choosing 13 fiscal year budget data from the fiscal year 2000/01 to 2012/13.Simple linear regression model was employed in establishing the degree and magnitude of the relationship between the variables. A t-test and F-ratio were applied to test hypothesis and overall significance of the regression model at 5% significance level. Findings of this study indicates that revenue forecast within the 13 fiscal year period under study has significant effect on wage bill management in the context of wage bill to revenue ratio. This is an implication that revenue forecasts can help in managing the wage bill.